If 2025 hasn’t already had enough twists and turns, the year is ending with a further political surprise as a third Conservative MP abandons his party and, in a second case, crosses the floor to join the Carney Liberals which puts them just one seat away from a majority government. A majority would mean the Liberals would control House of Commons committees and be able to move their agenda and legislation forward without the opposition filibustering that seems to have become a regular occurrence in minority Parliaments. Several pieces of key legislation remain stalled in the committee stage or are still awaiting completion of 2nd reading in order to move to committee, largely due to various delay tactics being used by Conservative and Bloc MP’s.
This may help to explain why Markham Unionville MP Michael Ma announced last Thursday that he had left the Conservative caucus and had joined the Liberals. This followed the departure of two MP’s from Conservative ranks in late November when Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor to join the Liberals and support the Carney budget while at the same time Edmonton area MP Matt Jeneroux – who was rumoured to be joining the Liberals – announced his surprise retirement as of early next year. He later abstained on several key votes including on the budget.
Although the spring session of Parliament which followed the election seemed to witness a greater degree of cooperation and sense of urgency given the significant threats facing the country, this mood seems to have cooled in the fall session particularly with the return of the highly partisan Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre. Mr. Poilievre, who lost his Carleton seat in the election and so absent from the spring session, had to win a by-election over the summer in order to return to Parliament in the fall. Mr. Poilievre is facing a review of his leadership at his party’s conference in January.
With 2026 expected to be dominated by the CUSMA review, ongoing trade war, and a host of other significant challenges to our national well-being, it is essential to our industry and the country in general that we have the political stability and maturity in our political leadership which the current times demand. This is not a time for politics as usual, and this thinking may just be part of why these Conservative MP’s left their party – two of which have joined the Carney Liberals.
This now gives the Liberals 171 seats or one short of a majority in the 343 seat Parliament and up two from the 169 seats they won in the spring election. The Conservatives have 142 seats, down two from the election, with one of the 142 being Matt Jeneroux who has announced he will be resigning shortly. The Bloc Quebecois have 22, the New Democrats 7, and the Greens 1, all of which remain the same number as elected in the spring election.
2025 is not over yet, so who know if there are further surprises yet to come!
